What Will Happen If TikTok Faces a U.S. Ban? Exploring the Impact on Social Strategies and Creators

TikTok—owned by Chinese tech company ByteDance—is at the center of a heated debate in the U.S. over national security concerns. On Friday, January 10th, the Supreme Court heard arguments regarding a potential TikTok ban, with the app claiming the ban violates First Amendment free speech protections. Justices raised questions about the law, specifically its focus on ByteDance and its algorithm. A decision is expected in the coming days, ahead of the potential January 19th ban.

This uncertainty leaves businesses, advertisers, and creators in a tricky position. How should strategies shift? And what might TikTok influencers do if the platform goes dark? Below, we’ll explore recommendations for both paid and organic social strategies, and examine the potential ripple effects on the creator economy.

Adjusting Paid Social Strategies

For brands running paid campaigns, flexibility is key. Here’s how to approach the coming weeks:

Maintain TikTok Campaigns—For Now

App usage and advertiser presence have held steady, so we recommend continuing TikTok campaigns until an official decision is made.

Post-Ban Recommendations

• Campaigns Driving Traffic off TikTok: If the app remains operational post-ban, continue running campaigns for at least one month, provided performance benchmarks are met. These campaigns can continue to drive results from TikTok and boost awareness across other social platforms.
• Discontinue Organic Boosts: Since boosts aim to grow TikTok followers and engagement, their value diminishes if the platform becomes nonviable.

Reallocate Budget to Other Platforms

In the event of a ban, platforms like Instagram, YouTube, and Snapchat are likely to see an influx of users and advertiser investment. This surge may lead to higher ad costs (CPM), but the increase in available impressions from a growing user base could help stabilize costs. Monitoring performance metrics will be crucial to determine how to best reallocate budgets.

Organic Social Strategy Adjustments

For brands focused on organic content, here’s how to stay agile:

Continue Posting—For Now

Until a decision is finalized, maintain a regular posting schedule on TikTok to maximize engagement.

Tip: we recommend brands download all of their native data and manually download all of their TikTok video content, so that they can repurpose on other social platforms.

Transition to Other Platforms

If a ban is imminent, stop creating TikTok-first content and shift creative efforts to other platforms:

• YouTube Shorts: With massive reach, YouTube offers a natural home for short-form video creators.
• Instagram & Facebook Reels: Reels provide a seamless transition for TikTok-style content.
• Snapchat Stories and Spotlight: With a user base similar to TikTok’s, Snapchat offers strong opportunities for Gen Z and Millennial audiences.

How will this impact brands working with Creators?

A potential TikTok ban would leave many influencers and creators at a crossroads. For years, TikTok has served as a launchpad for viral content, brand collaborations, and monetization opportunities. Here’s how we anticipate brands working with creators might pivot:

Create a Contingency Plan

If you’re locked into a TikTok partnership, work with influencers for a back-up plan. Potentially shift to rival platforms (ensuring it is one the influencer’s key platforms) including YouTube Shorts or Instagram.

Pause TikTok Partnerships

Hold on contracting additional TikTok content until there is a clearer picture of the platform’s outcome. Focus on platforms with a clear outcome to ensure  your budgets are well-spent.

Explore New Platforms

Capitalize on the “newness” of recently launched or upcoming platforms. Become an industry leader by launching a campaign on an untapped platform or up-and-coming partners for potentially supercharged results.

Should you consider alternative platforms?

We do not currently recommend moving forward with these platforms, but we are keeping a close eye on their development, usage and active brands.

• Triller is a U.S.-based social platform that allows users to create and share short-form videos, similar to TikTok. Triller offers AI-driven video editing which sets itself apart from other platforms. The platform appeals to a younger demographic focusing on music, dance, and lifestyle content.
• Lemon8 is a newer lifestyle content community powered by TikTok and also owned by ByteDance. The discovery app features videos and photos across a number of verticals like Wellness, Fitness, Home, Travel and Fashion. Advertising is not currently available, but it is on their roadmap. Given its ownership, the app could also face a ban and therefore, should be a lower priority in the near future.
• Bluesky is a platform similar to X, but is designed to give users more control over their data, privacy, and content moderation. While this does give users greater autonomy and control, it is a cause for concern when it comes to brand safety. So far, Bluesky has for the most part successfully balanced free expression with moderation and community standards. We recommend continuing to monitor the state of this platform and their plans to maintain a brand-safe environment.

Final Thoughts: Staying Agile in a Time of Change

The potential TikTok ban is creating waves across the social media landscape, but adaptability remains the key to success. For businesses, diversifying paid and organic efforts across platforms will help safeguard against disruptions. For creators, branching out and embracing new platforms will ensure their influence remains strong, even if TikTok disappears.

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